Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his play on the O/U 38.5 total as Iowa and Iowa State have four straight wins to one side.
Iowa (-3.5) at Iowa State: O/U 38.5
In the last four meetings between Iowa and Iowa State, the Under has cashed four straight times with an average combined score of 28 points per game.
The Under has cashed in five of the past six matchups for the Cy-Hawk Trophy.
This rivalry is more interesting this season as Iowa actually has a capable quarterback in Cade MacNamara, the former Michigan Wolverine. However, Iowa doesn’t quite have the pieces in the passing game to let MacNamara reach his full potential. MacNamara’s job is to play turnover-free football and get Iowa to the red zone.
For Iowa State, the Cyclones started Rocco Becht at quarterback and he went 10-for-13 for 113 yards and three total touchdowns. The Cyclones have five rushers combined for 134 yards for 27 carries and won 30-9 against Northern Iowa in a tune-up game.
Iowa held Utah State to 14 points in their tuneup game and scored 24 points, so neither Iowa nor Iowa State impressed on offense.
The Hawkeyes have won five of the past six meetings but only by an average margin of 6.0 points per game in the last four victories.
This could and should be another close game and while I lean Iowa to win outright, I would rather continue to play the Under in this series.
I played the Under 38.5 at -115 odds and would go down to 37.0 as I expect this to drop below 36.5, where it is on BetMGM opposed to 37.5 and 38.5 on DraftKings and FanDuel.
Pick: Under 38.5 (1u)
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